The US treaty ally is spending billions to arm itself for a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea it hopes will never come
In the heart of Manila, where noise and chaos reign supreme, the American Cemetery and Memorial is an oasis of stillness.
More than 50,000 fallen troops are honoured at the site – some with white marble headstones, but most as names etched into the Walls of the Missing, their remains never recovered. All but a handful were American soldiers. The cemetery does not commemorate the estimated 1 million Filipinos who also died in the Pacific War of 1941-45.
But this solemn ground does serve as a warning of the costs, casualties and consequences of war, as the Philippines once again finds itself on the edge of a gathering storm in the Pacific, caught between China and the United States.
“Sometimes, it’s as if you can feel the temperature rising,” said a Western military officer based in the Philippines who asked not be identified, speaking after a recent ceremony to commemorate America’s war dead. “China is essentially already on a war footing, and so our own preparations for war are gathering pace.”
As Beijing grows ever more assertive in its territorial claims, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has reversed the anti-American stance of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. By doubling down on the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty with the US and sidestepping a constitutional ban on foreign military bases, the Marcos administration has allowed Washington to make his country a cornerstone of its strategy to contain China, with US forces free to “rotate” through Philippine bases under their Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
The Philippines’ geography places it directly in the path of any conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea. Its northernmost island, a mere 142km (88 miles) south of Taiwan, borders the Bashi Channel – a maritime gateway between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean that also controls access to the island’s largest port, Kaohsiung.
“The Philippines is absolutely critical in the event of conflict in the region,” said Jennifer Parker, a naval expert at the Australian National University’s National Security College. “If you are planning to take and hold Taiwan, you have to neutralise US military assets in the Philippines.”
That reality brings both strategic importance and existential risk. Beijing sees Taiwan as a part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Washington has said it would oppose any such move and is committed to supplying Taiwan with weapons – though it does not recognise the self-ruled island as an independent state.
With nine EDCA sites and access to other dual-use facilities across the archipelago, the Philippines has become a key node in the US’ defence strategy. But it has also made itself a prime Chinese target.
‘We choose America’
The pivot back to America under Marcos has proven popular with many Filipinos, who have grown weary of Beijing’s provocations in the South China Sea. Chinese coastguard vessels and maritime militias have repeatedly harassed Filipino fishermen, even in waters where an international tribunal has ruled China has no legal claim.
“We Filipinos are very friendly people. We have tried to be friends with the Chinese but they have been arrogant and disrespectful,” said Rodolpho Cea, a 64-year-old Manila resident. “We would rather not choose, but they bully us and steal what is ours. So … For better or for worse, we choose America.”
But the risks of that choice loom large. War games conducted by the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies have predicted tens of thousands of deaths in the early weeks of any conflict over Taiwan. A US-China war would likely escalate into a regional theatre of destruction, involving Japan, South Korea and potentially Australia. Even a limited conflict would reverberate globally, with economic and political consequences far more devastating than the Covid-19 pandemic.
We must do our best to prepare for the upcoming battle, even if the costs are unimaginable
Aaron Rabena, University of the Philippines professor
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said in an interview last year that he wanted “to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape” to deny Beijing “a fait accompli” in the event of an invasion. And in September, US Navy chief Admiral Lisa Franchetti unveiled a plan to prepare for a potential war with China by 2027.
For now, the battle remains confined to the so-called grey zone, where China flexes its muscle with intimidating military exercises, cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns and deniable acts of sabotage – such as the severing of undersea communications cables – combined with its hard-nosed diplomacy. Yet these tactics seem to have only strengthened the Philippines’ resolve. Recent surveys by the Manila-based think tank Stratbase show nearly 90 per cent of Filipinos support standing up to China, while three-quarters oppose concessions on the South China Sea dispute.
“China’s strategy has backfired and caused it huge reputational damage internationally,” said Victor Manhit, founder of Stratbase. “It has failed entirely to intimidate us. It has only mobilised us to strengthen military ties, not just with the US, but also with Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and even European countries such as France.”
History, money and military: why the South China Sea is so important to Beijing
Building a frontline state
For decades, the Philippine military was considered one of the weakest in the region, its resources sapped by internal insurgencies and political neglect. But Marcos is now reinvigorating a stalled modernisation plan, earmarking US$35 billion for weapons procurement under a Comprehensive Archipelagic Defence Concept that aims to rapidly improve the country’s surveillance, intelligence-gathering and missile-defence capabilities.
“Yes, we have neglected our military,” Manhit said. “But the current government is committed and focused. It understands the nature of the threat. On this there is now common purpose across the administration and the military.”
The US has stepped in to help. In July, Washington announced a US$500 million military aid package to the Philippines, and has in recent years positioned both Patriot anti-missile and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars) launchers in the country. These launchers can be rapidly relocated around the archipelago by air, as demonstrated in joint drills with the US military.
Cutting-edge systems like the Typhon ground-launched missile system – capable of targeting Chinese bases on Hainan Island and across southern China – have also been deployed by the US, much to Beijing’s anger. Recent suggestions that Manila wants to buy Typhon systems of its own were condemned by China’s foreign ministry as “extremely irresponsible”.
Meanwhile, the Philippines has acquired advanced radar systems from Japan, BrahMos hypersonic anti-ship missiles from India and Spyder air defence systems from Israel’s Rafael Systems. Manila has also reportedly bid to buy Himars launchers.
American and Filipino troops are conducting larger and more complex military exercises, including next year’s Balikatan drills, which are set to simulate a full-scale naval, air and ground battle involving 17,000 personnel from the US, Philippines, Australia and Japan.
And in November, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin confirmed the existence of “Task Force Ayungin”, an American military unit deployed to Palawan province that bears Manila’s name for the hotly disputed Second Thomas Shoal.
At the same time, clashes between Chinese coastguard vessels and Filipino ships continue in the South China Sea, while analysts have described the Chinese military’s recent large-scale drills around Taiwan as preparations for a potential naval blockade.
“The Americans are bound by treaty to help us, and we are bound by treaty to help them,” said Aaron Rabena, an international-relations professor at the University of the Philippines and a former adviser to the country’s defence ministry.
“We must do our best to prepare for the upcoming battle, even if the costs are unimaginable. We do not want to see great power competition played out in our country, but in reality, we are now a frontline state.”
